Inside the IC

Written By Ryan Williams

01 / Macro

AI-driven market highs versus a weakening macro backdrop?

Inflation is proving persistent, and the Federal Reserve under its new Chairman has shifted toward a hawkish stance with roughly two further US hikes priced in the near term. We expect other central banks including the RBA to follow. Despite this, AI continues to drive US equity market strength while the ASX is barely positive over 12 months. Our network suggests Fed hikes will wait until after the US mid term election.

02 / Positioning

Portfolio resilience, preparing for opportunity.

  • Seeking differentiated sources of income, including insurance-linked securities (ILS), royalties and other specialist alternatives.

  • Infrastructure remains a standout portfolio core, supported by inflation-linked revenues of hard assets linked to the 'main street' (ports & toll roads) as well as the AI economy (i.e. data centres, power).

  • Providing multiple risk and liquidity-tiered access points for the AI transition including crossover funds, PE secondaries, data centres, and liquid growth funds.

  • Refining exposure to the property-heavy local private credit sector.

03 / Due diligence

The Research pipeline – local access & global reach.

Fermat ILSScoringHighly attractive alternative yield sector managed by the leading manager in the space. Has received large inflows from global sovereign wealth funds and this is a unique access point to invest without macro or duration risk.

TigerXScorecardGlobal leader in next gen tech and AI – a unique product combing late stage private growth with public Tech leaders.

Vinva Alpha ExtensionScorecardLeading Australian quantitative equities manager, well placed to leverage AI and alternative data sets versus peers for consistent alpha.

SecondQuarterAdvanced DDLate-stage VC secondaries across Australia and NZ technology sectors. First close end of July.

ExodusPointEarly reviewTier-1 Global multi strategy hedge fund; well known to the IC for ten years, unique access for QuarterFive given relationship and demand globally for such quality.

 

04 / Watching

Looking forward to the next IC

 

01US earnings season - testing the resilience of corporate fundamentals. End of July

 

02Fed policy - markets recalibrating expectations for the rate cycle. Late July.

 

03Australian budget - implications for venture capital, innovation and ESVCLP opportunities. August.

 

04Market dislocations - continuing to assess where volatility creates compelling entry points. Ongoing.

Ryan Williams
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